In other news, we may be forced to skip our annual tradition of handicapping the Oscars in a uniquely poor fashion, but consider this a clarion call for your own predictions, rants, et cetera. Having just watched A History of Violence again, I'm pretty furious that Frances McDormand stole Maria Bello's spot in the Supporting Actress category--almost as furious as I am that Charlize Theron took Naomi Watts' place among the Best Actresses. So much for presuming that North Country would quietly disappear just because it's appalling.
March 01, 2006
Class of 1984: The FINAL Final Round
To paraphrase Norman Maclean, I am haunted by Perry King. Anyway, you know the drill: be the first to guess which movie the cap below comes from, win a copy of Anchor Bay's new Special Edition of Class of 1984. Contest not open to residents outside North America or, I can't believe I have to say this, people who have already won it.
In other news, we may be forced to skip our annual tradition of handicapping the Oscars in a uniquely poor fashion, but consider this a clarion call for your own predictions, rants, et cetera. Having just watched A History of Violence again, I'm pretty furious that Frances McDormand stole Maria Bello's spot in the Supporting Actress category--almost as furious as I am that Charlize Theron took Naomi Watts' place among the Best Actresses. So much for presuming that North Country would quietly disappear just because it's appalling.
In other news, we may be forced to skip our annual tradition of handicapping the Oscars in a uniquely poor fashion, but consider this a clarion call for your own predictions, rants, et cetera. Having just watched A History of Violence again, I'm pretty furious that Frances McDormand stole Maria Bello's spot in the Supporting Actress category--almost as furious as I am that Charlize Theron took Naomi Watts' place among the Best Actresses. So much for presuming that North Country would quietly disappear just because it's appalling.
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11 comments:
Little Man Tate?
Congrats, Eddie! Shoot me your name and shipping address - billc@filmfreakcentral.net
Ah, craptacles.
Oh! Wait! What???
Oscar Predictions
I always shoot myself in the foot with these. Given that a romantic (and, when you get right down to it, what movie fan isn’t?) I find myself picking the person I want to win (relatively speaking) rather than the one I think will actually win. This year, there seems to be an even bigger disconnect than usual between the best films and the nominated films—not to mention the absence of so many of the best films: Cache, Grizzly Man, Forty Shades of Blue, L.A. Plays Itself (Gack! Isn’t this one a natural nomination?) and of course, Mr. Cronenberg.
Ah well, I bet you a smile emoticon that these are the winners, followed with my (relative) rooting interests
PICTURE: Brokeback Mountain
DIRECTOR: Ang Lee
ACTOR: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
ACTRESS: Reese Witherspoon
S. ACTOR: George Clooney
S. ACTRESS: Rachel Weisz
Original Script: Crash
Adapted Script: Brokeback Mountain
Doc: March of the Penguins
Foreign Language: Joyeux Noel
A decent, if uninspired lot—with the exception of the inevitable “Crash” win for Paul Haggis’s ridiculous (or Dickensian, if you believe Roger Ebert) sitcom about racism,
Will have my fingers crossed for Amy Adams, right until Ms. Weisz gets the nod.
William Hurt seems to be well-regarded by the Academy, I’d love to see him up there. I will not.
While I’m at it, how about “A History of Violence” for adapted script? No? Didn’t think so.
Question
The proliferation of Oscar-watching blogs and small-scale "awards" announcements has taken a good deal of the suspense out of the Oscars, which were arguably the only thing they ever had going for them besides the unrivaled garish hoo-ha-- and even that's been on the decline since the Debbie Allen dance sequences were canned. As far as predictions go, it's really not so tough, if you're willing to forego both cynicism about what the Oscars typically recognize and biases that the most "deserving" nominees might actually win.
Only two of the big eight awards are really up in the air this year:
Picture: Cowboys Eating Pudding-- the people clamoring that Crash will pull the upset are either fanboys or those who were trying to generate more "buzz" for the Oscar ceremony itself by acting like there was a chance in hell for anything else to win.
Director: Ang Lee.
Actor: Hoffman.
Actress: Witherspoon, and I'll just pretend it's for Election. If her character had died, Huffman probably could've pulled off the upset.
S. Actor: Giamatti, since he beat Clooney for the SAG award and since Syriana didn't pull the nominations haul it was expected to. With Dillon, horrifyingly enough, as the possible beneficiary of a split vote.
S. Actress: Weisz, though she's not a lock-- is AMPAS really going to give the poor man's Kate Winslet an Oscar before giving one to the real deal? The only inconceivable winner of the five is McDormand.
O. Screenplay: Paul Haggis' Goddamn Invisibility Cloak.
A. Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain.
And, in the other three "best picture" ghettos:
Foreign Film: Tsotsi. AMPAS is already making plenty of self-congratulatory "political" statements this year, so there's no need to get into the thorny territory of whether Palestine counts as a real country...
Documentary: Considering that Super Size Me lost last year to a political screed, Morgan Freeman Never Shuts the Hell Up, This Time about Penguins seems likely to lose to Darwin's Nightmare.
Animated: Wallace & Gromit, because their warehouse burned down.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: a year that falls somewhere between "underwhelming" and "aggressively bad" gets the capstone awards ceremony it deserves.
I liked Reese Witherspoon better than any of the other nominees actually (sad lot really), but I still think that Felicity Huffman has a lock on it. Showier work.
How easy can it be when your only clue is Jodie Foster and a little kid? I mean, that feels like about a dozen of her movies.
RE: Best Actress.
Showier work? Sure, but that's hardly made a difference during the entirety of this awards season-- Huffman's the only likely spoiler, but she's a far cry from a lock.
Looking at the precursors, Witherspoon has won the following: "Best Actress" awards from the Golden Globes (Musical / Comedy), BFCA, and SAG, plus New York, Boston, DC, San Fransisco, Las Vegas, Utah, Florida, Kansas, "National Society of," Cinemarati, and Online film critics' group awards. Huffman has: Golden Globe (Drama), plus Southeast, Dallas / Fort Worth, and Phoenix film critics' groups.
Oscar voters aren't going to look at their ballots and say, "Who am I to defy the Las Vegas Film Critics Association?," obviously, but what all of the overwhelming precursor love suggests is that Witherspoon is way, way out in front. As for Huffman, her performance has its fans, but at this point she's the Shoh-Ash to Witherspoon's Zellweger. And, as was the case in that head-to-head, the performer who can get over $100M of asses into theaters is the performer that AMPAS is going to recognize.
I'll just say, Bill, that you have a way of making an idiot feel like an idiot.
It's a gift, BLH. But seriously, don't sweat it; and to all the winners, your disc is on the way.
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